The Initiative Energien Speichern e. V. (INES) published another update of its scenarios on the gas supply in Germany in winter 2022/23 and on re-filling gas storages before winter 2023/24 (January update). If current consumption reductions are held up Germany will pull through the remaining winter months.
The scenarios show that Germany will get through the winter just fine under given modelling parameters. Even extreme temperatures and additional risk factors cannot force a shortage in gas supplies. However, consumption reductions are essential for this positive prospect.
Generally, the January update of INES’ scenarios indicates that even reduced LNG imports and a complete stop of Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe do not endanger re-filling gas storage facilities before winter 2023/24. If existing potentials can be used cost-efficiently depends on the legal framework.
In 2022 filling gas storages according to legislative filling corridors was ensured by a three-step procedure that was introduced by the German Gas Storage Act. Implementing the three-step procedure clearly points out that tendering of gas options (Strategic Storage Based Options, SSBO) holds cost advantages over direct filling of gas storage facilities by the Market Area Operator. INES therefore recommends further development and increased usage of gas options.
INES will publish an evaluation report of the Gas Storage Act by the end of January that will further outline the continued development of tendering gas options.
Sebastian Bleschke, Managing Director of INES, comments as follows: “If current consumption reductions are held up, Germany will pull through the winter just fine. Even reduced LNG imports and a complete stop of Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe will not induce gas shortages in this winter. To reach gas storage filling levels securely but also cost-efficiently, the instrument of gas options should be further developed and increasingly used.”
BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON INES‘ SCENARIOS:
The Initiative Energien Speichern e.V. (INES) continually runs a model of the European gas markets to assess the security of gas supplies. Based on the modelling and taking into account current gas storage filling levels four scenarios for the German gas supply in winter 2022/23 and re-filling gas storages before winter 2023/24 have been looked into: For the first scenario underlying country-specific temperatures were those of the EU weather year 2016 in order to model normal temperatures. A second scenario assumes “warm temperatures” as in the European winter 2020. A third scenario analyses gas supplies for “cold temperatures” according to winter 2010. In addition, the “cold temperature” scenario was complemented by two risk factors. On the one hand, reduced LNG imports were assumed. On the other hand, a complete stop of Russian gas supplies to Latvia and through Ukraine and Turkey was modelled.
INES‘ scenarios were first published on 18 November 2022 based on data of October 2022. On 9 December 2022 INES presented an update based on data of November 2022. The January update released now takes into account data of December 2022.
Further explanations on INES‘ scenarios and the results are available in German on the presentation slides of the press conference as well as in the documentation of the presentation.