INES Models Gas Scenarios for Winter 2023/24 - INESINES Initiative Energien Speichern

The INES scenarios show that a moderate LNG import volume in the EU internal market is sufficient to fully fill gas storage facilities in Germany before winter 2023/2024 during the summer period. Currently, market prices in Germany provide strong incentives for filling. To secure the filling of storage facilities, INES recommends further developing gas option tenders and utilizing them in case of deteriorating or absent market incentives to ensure secure and cost-efficient achievement of the filling requirements.

For winter 2023/2024, the INES scenarios show that if temperatures are warm, gas storage facilities will only be moderately used. However, if temperatures are medium to cold, the gas storage facilities will be heavily or completely emptied. Compliance with the legal filling level requirement for the end of January 2024 of 40 % is challenging in the latter two cases.

In the scenario calculations, the gas storage facilities are already completely emptied in January 2024 during cold temperatures. A gas shortage cannot be resolved in the models. Therefore, if cold temperatures occur, a consumption level characterized by current savings will likely not be completely covered.

Sebastian Bleschke, Managing Director of INES, comments: "Fully filled gas storage facilities, mild temperatures, and strong consumption savings have brought us through the last winter. However, looking ahead to the coming winter, gas supply security in Germany has not yet been restored. For the winter, it is crucial to fill the gas storage facilities and greatly reduce consumption when it gets cold. Additionally, of course, further gas infrastructure that can be activated at short notice and actually provide additional gas in the coming winter will help us."

BACKGROUND ON INES GAS SCENARIOS

INES continuously models European gas markets to assess gas supply security. Based on this and taking into account storage filling levels as of April 1, 2023, three scenarios were considered for the upcoming storage filling and gas supply in Germany for winter 2023/2024:

The first scenario is based on country-specific temperatures of the EU weather year 2016 to consider normal temperatures.
Another scenario assumes "warm temperatures" like in the European winter of 2020.
A third scenario examines gas supply for "cold temperatures" according to the European winter of 2010.

The INES scenarios were first published on November 18, 2022, based on data until the end of October 2022. Since then, INES has been publishing monthly updates that consider the data situation up to the end of the previous month. During the "summer phase" (May to October 2023), INES will only publish updates on the INES gas scenarios every two months. The next update is planned for June 9, 2023, which will provide a closer look at LNG imports to Europe in connection with storage filling.

A detailed explanation of the scenarios and results can be found in the presentation slides for the press conference, as well as in the documentation for the presentation. In addition, all press conferences have been recorded and can be viewed anytime on the INES YouTube channel.

FURTHER INFORMATION:

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